In Closing

The Cubs are winding down Spring Training, and will start the season proper next Monday night in Houston. Nothing terribly eventful has happened in Spring Training, which is a good thing, because really the most eventually thing you can imagine happening is someone important getting hurt. There was a bit of news earlier in the week, though, and somewhat surprising news at that, in the form of Kevin Gregg being named close by Lou Pinella. It was a decision, apparently, based largely off of their performances during Spring Training. Spring Training doesn't give you a really good sample of a player's ability to begin with, both in terms of playing time, and the quality of players they're facing, and Marmol's spring was truncated this year because he played for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. He did blow a save in the World Baseball Classic against a team of almost entirely minor leaguers in the form of the Netherlands, but that was a) one game and b) party due to bad defense. For what its worth, their spring training stats were as follows (source: mlb.com):

	IP	ERA	H	BB	K
Kevin Gregg	9.1	0.00	4	2	13
Carlos Marmol	9.0	4.00	6	1*	12

*Also had 5 HBPs.

Gregg's stats are certainly impressive, and better than Marmol's, but again, I think its undeniable that Spring Training stats have an inherent unreliability, and personally, I would've made it Marmol's job to lose. Obviously, Pinella is seeing guys work out every day, not just playing in exhibition games, but just looking at what the two did during games, I certainly don't think Marmol did anything that would make you suggest that he was going to be much less effective this year than last year, when he most certainly was playing at a closer type level, even wtih a few big hiccups along the way. Basically, if you ask me, Marmol should be the closer for two reasons:

1. I'm still pretty sure that Marmol is the better pitcher. In his career as a reliever, Marmol's ERA is 2.39 (baseball-reference.com). Kevin Gregg's best full year in the majors was last year with the Marlins, where he posted an ERA of 3.41, and its 3.90 in his career as a reliever. Marmol is also way harder to hit against for both righties and lefties. Gregg's K/BB ratio is better, and Marmol has certainly shown some control issues, but I don't think its really a big enough issue to matter in the face of how much harder it is for opponents to hit off of Marmol.

Really though, even if Gregg starts as the closer, it doesn't mean that he has to stay the closer. And even if he struggles and Lou decides to keep him as closer throughout the regular season for some reason, in theory, the Cubs should be better than the rest of the division to the point where it really shouldn't matter. What matters is whether the Cubs have someone who can be lights out to finish off a playoff game come October (provider the Cubs actually have a lead late in a playoff game this year... rrrr...). That brings me to point 2.

2. Its very much possible that Marmol will have more wear put on him as a set-up man than as a closer. Usually, the set-up man is thought of as the guy who pitches the 8th inning before the closer is going to come in to pitch the 9th. However, there were times last year, when Marmol would be brought in a jam in the 7th, have to work out of it, then continue on to pitch the 8th, sometimes batting in between that time. If you sift through his game log, you'll find a bunch of instances of Marmol throwing 30+ pitches, a couple instances of him throwing 40+ pitches, and on top of that, a bunch of instances of him throwing on back to back days. Dan Bernstein, a radio show host for 670 The Score here in the Chicagoland area, has taken to calling Marmol Lou Pinella's "blankie," because sometimes he seems to be what Pinella uses to make himself feel safe again in whatever tense situation arises, regardless of what sort of rest Marmol has had. Carlos Marmol made the All-Star team last year because he was absolutely lights out for much of the first half, but by the time the All-Star game rolled around, his ERA had ballooned into the fours and looked very un-All-Star like. It took some time for Carlos to seemingly get himself right again. A lot of people suspected this to be due to overuse at the time, and if Pinella uses Marmol in a similar fashion in this year, it'll make a lot of people, including me, nervous again.

Carlos Marmol is 26, and there's no reason why he shouldn't get even better than he is now in the next couple of years and become a perennial All-Star contender. But he's a hard-throwing power pitcher, and, while he hasn't shown himself to be injury prone to this point, all you have to do is look at the rise and fall of a pitcher like Eric Gagne to want to be weary of how much abuse you put on the arm of a pitcher like Marmol. The Cubs are trying to win now, and they should use Marmol to try and win now, but they should do it within reason, with the knowledge that he should be able to help the Cubs now AND in the years to come.