The Confounding Collapse of the Cubs (alliteration is fun!)

It's been a long time since I blogged about the Cubs, partly because I've been busy with other stuff, and partly because doing so would just be too damn painful. The team that seemed pretty much poised to dominate a weak division again at the start of the year has been stuck in a malaise, with almost no offensive output to speak of. Currently, the team is a game under .500, sitting at 34-35, putting them tied for 3rd in the division, 3.5 out of 1st. No one else has really asserted themselves as a leader in the division--and really the entire NL has just been sort of a big blob except for the Dodgers, who are sitting pretty with a big lead in the NL West at 47-26--and so the Cubs certainly still have plenty of time to get themselves right and take over first, but that doesn't really make the baseball that's been on display in recent weeks any less frustrating to think about.

There's been no singular reason for the team's poor play, but first and foremost among any reasons you want to throw out has to be the injury to Aramis Ramirez. The Cubs haven't really been able to find a good replacement at all for him at 3rd base, not only to replace his offense but also his defense. Much of the playing time at 3rd has been given to Mike Fontenot, who hasn't been a complete wreck defensively, but certainly hasn't stood out as being excellent either. This would be fine if he were able to put out some decent numbers offensively, but as of my writing this, he's hitting .222 with a .670 OPS. Recently, some time at 3rd has been given to call-up Jake Fox, who has hit the ball well thus far, but who is even more of a liablilty defensively. Fox was absolutely tearing the cover off of the ball at AAA, but he's just now getting to the majors at 26 because he's never proven that can can play a good corner outfield at the major league level, let alone at the hot corner. The Cubs's struggles at 3rd base once again raises the spectre of the off season trading of Mark DeRosa for questionable pitching prospects. Last year was a career year for DeRosa and, as I've written before, the Cubs were probably using a mentality of "buy low-sell high", banking on the fact that DeRosa's 2008 numbers were probably a one time thing (although, judging by what he's done so far with Cleveland, maybe not). But even still, even a Mark DeRosa who produces anywhere close to his 2008 output would be a tremendous safety net for what has been the most severe injury for the Cubs this year (severe both in terms of its effect on the player physically, and its effect on the team).

The lack of a good 3rd baseman has been the least of the Cubs's problems, however, and while injuries are always a risk that has to be considered, some of the other issues with the Cubs have been hard to explain. Alfonso Soriano--who, for all his faults, is usually good to be penciled in for an average of at least .280 for so with a bunch of home runs--is currently hitting a meager .229. After hitting .284 in April, his average has gone way downhill from there, and is currenly a sub-Mendoza line .195 in June (as usual, I'm getting my stats from Baseball Reference). Milton Bradley, who has improved to an extent, and is at least managing to stay on the field for the most part, is nevertheless hitting just .238 on the year with anemic power numbers of 5 HRs and 16 RBIs. And last year's Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, is hitting .231 with 6 HRs and 21 RBIs, and has garnered attention this year more for looking like he got kinda fat, and for having tested positive for pot during the World Baseball Classic than anything else this year. Add all of these disappointing performances up, and here's what you get statistically for the Cubs through 69 games. Compare that to what they did over the same period last year:

2008: .247 Avg., .324 OBP, .400 Slg., .724 OPS, 292 runs
2009: .283 Avg., .361 OBP, .442 Slg., .804 OPS, 380 runs

Its not even particularly close. Aramis Ramirez has been the team's best power hitter in recent years, and there's reason to believe that things will get better when he returns (that is if he can return this year in a healthy enough state to be effective), but clearly a lot more has to change than just Ramirez's absense.

The bullpen has still had issues as well, notably Carlos Marmol, who has still proved difficult to get hits off of, but who has seemingly lost all of his control, walking a staggering 35 guys in 34 innings pitched. What's kept the team from spiraling into a complete nose dive has been the starting pitching, which has been solid all year. Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster all have ERAs under 4.00, and Randy Wells, who pretty much came from out of nowhere, and who was originally meant as just a brief fill-in guy during Zambrano's DL stint, has an ERA under 3.00 in 8 starts. I think the Cubs' rotation is one of the best in the NL, but who knows if its going to hold up at this level, so it would certainly behoove the Cubs to get the problems elsewhere on the team sorted out sooner rather than later. An added wrinkle is the that the Tribune Company's sale of the team is going along at a sluggish pace, and current frontrunner to buy the team, Tom Rickkets is having trouble raising capital for it. As such, many have speculated that the Cubs might not have much wiggle room to add salary at the trade deadline. And so it becomes doubly important for the Cubs to try and work out their struggles from within.