The Old Familiar Sting

Note: I started this before the announcement that Zambrano is moving to the bullpen and finishes it afterward, so this might be kinda weird.

The Cubs are off to an uninspiring 5-9 start, and currently down 0-2 in a 4 game series against the Mets, having previously lost 2 of 3 at home to the absolutely putrid Astros (they have a .249 on base percentage for the year). As a general rule, 14 games isn't really enough time to say with any sort of certainty how good a team is, but the ways in which they've lost make the beginning of 2010 feel like an extension of the worst parts of 2010, and seem to validate the most pessimistic assessments of what the Cubs would be from before the season. Even with Ted Lilly still rehabbing in the minors, their rotation has been pretty good thus far, as it was in 2009 when it led MLB in quality starts. But the offense has been mediocre overall and non-existent lately, with 1 total run scored thus far in the Mets series, and the bullpen has been horrendous.

Take out opening day, when Carlos Zambrano got rocked in Atlanta, and The Cubs' rotation has been solid thus far, posting a starter's ERA of 3.49. Even Carlos Silva--having come into the season recovering from injury, seemingly not in the best of shape, and having been cast off from Seattle in exchange for Milton Bradley--has had two really good starts (update: actually has had a 3rd good one while I've been writing this), giving up just 1 ER over 13 IP. The bullpen, however, has an ERA of 6.15, with a combined W-L record of 1-6. The best reliever to this point, has probably been Sean Marshall, who's done a bit of everything, having appeared in close & late situations, and having done some long relief as well. Carlos Marmol has been okay, but does have 1 blown save. John Grobow, originally penciled in as the set-up man, has struggled mightily, and the once highly-touted Jeff Samardzjia looks like he probably shouldn't be in the majors. This is a problem, seeing as he's 25 now, not getting any younger and hasn't yet distinguished himself as a major league pitcher at all. He hasn't really been able to develop any good pitches to complement his fastball.

It was just announced today that Lou Pinella is moving Zambrano to the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. For all the reasons above, the Cubs definitely need to get some help from somewhere, but this still seems like a dumb and somewhat panicky move to me. While he's off to a somewhat crappy start, he's still obviously a well-above average starter, if perhaps not an elite one. By moving him to the bullpen--if this is a permanent move--you're limiting him to maybe 80-ish innings instead of 200+ were he to be healthy the entire year. Relievers simply aren't as valuable for a team because they aren't out there as much in total. This also, obviously, weakens the rotation a bit. The way it's started out, that wouldn't seem to be a huge issue, but Carlos Silva is not going to have starts as good as these all year, nor is Tom Gorzelanny going to go without allowing an earned run as he did in his first start. Ted Lilly will figure to be good, as he has been ever since he's been with the Cubs (he turned out to be a really good signing--Jim Hendry has his moments), but never quite know for sure what a guy is going to give you coming off of injury. Really, I think the best hope for the Cubs bullpen is for someone to simply come out of nowhere and play above their level. Right now it doesn't seem like that's going to be any of the 3 rookies currently in the Cubs bullpen. Theoretically, it could be prospect Andrew Cashner, who might be called up in the not-too-distant future.

The Cubs offense has, shall we say, sputtered out of the gate. As I'm writing this, the Cubs have plated 9 against the Mets in Game 3 of the series, but they had a combined 3 in the 3 games prior to that. Marlon Byrd has produced nicely thus far and has hit 3 HRs. Derrek Lee has 3 long balls as well, but hasn't hit for average much in recent games. Struggling the most offensively right now is Aramis Ramirez, who right at this moment is hitting .131 (0-for-6 in this Mets game), seems to be consistently getting behind in the count, and simply doesn't look right in his at-bats. Alphonso Soriano has had some awful ABs as well in the early going, although he's come around a bit, at least hitting the ball. Defensively he's misplayed several playable balls, and Lou Pinella has taken to switching in Tyler Colvin in late innings (or Fukudome, if he didn't start). Which is fine, I guess, but it takes away a possible pinch-hitting option if you need one, and obviously a guy making about $20 million a year should ideally be able to play 9 innings. Maybe the most encouraging thing as far as Cubs hitters goes, is the fact that Starlon Castro is currently hitting close to .400 for the Tennessee Smokies. As I wrote in my previous Cubs post, if he gets called up and is good enough to stay as a regular starter, that completely changes the calculus of the lineup, as it gets rid of the Fontenot/Baker platoon at 2nd. Not that they're both terrible, because they're not, but neither of them really screams starter on a playoff team.

We're less than 10% of the way through the season at the moment, but it's hard not to look at the current weaknesses of the team and see how this team can contend throughout the year. Moving Zambrano to the bullpen is certainly a dramatic move and will certainly shake things up. Personally I think it looks awful on paper, but baseball is weird and weird things happen. If they can consistently get starters going 6+IP only allowing a couple of runs--as they have been--Zambrano turns out to be a good set-up man, Marmol converts a good percentage of his saves, and they can muster up outs from somewhere for the rest of what they need, they'll be in position to win most games if they can plate a few runs. We'll see.