Rites of Spring Part II

Part II: Pitching

Cubs starting pitching was actually pretty good last year, and was more than anything what prevented the season from going completely off the rails last year. They actually led the league in quality starts (at least 6 IP, no more than 3 ER) in spite of everyone except Randy Wells missing time on the DL. Carlos Zambrano was managed to finish at a decent 3.77 ERA, but was inconsistent overall and finished with just 9 wins. Clearly the Cubs are going to want more out of him as the ace of the staff. Supposedly, like Geovany Soto, he's gotten himself in much better shape during the off-season, although his temperament on the mound is going to continue to be called into question. The Cubs' lowest ERA belonged, surprisingly, to Randy Wells at 3.05. Obviously, it would be fantastic if he were to repeat that, but nobody is predicting as much. The Cubs cut ties with the sometimes spectacular but often hurt and/or ineffective Rich Harden in the off-season, and Ted Lilly will begin the season on the DL, so on opening day the rest of the rotation will be made up of Ryan Dempster, Tom Gorzelanny, and Carlos Silva. The Cubs have said consistently that Lilly should be ready to return some time in mid-April. Given their history with pitching injuries, it's hard not to take any sort of injury prognostications from the Cubs with a grain of salt, but it does seem as though Lilly has had no real setbacks.

Carlos Silva beat out Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija for the 5th starter spot with a good spring. Good spring or no, the idea of Silva in the rotation terrifies me somewhat. At the time he was traded for Bradley's contract, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that the Cubs weren't going to do much of anything with him, except maybe bury him in long relief. Really he was always just a means to get rid of Bradley which was an absolute must. Silva is coming off of a year in which he made just 8 appearances due to a major injury, and even in the year before that he was totally ineffective with an ERA above 6. Theoretically though, he'll only be in the rotation for a few weeks, unless he earns a permanent spot there or unless Gorzelanny is worse than he is.

The bullpen looks like the team's biggest question mark right now. Kevin Gregg is gone, and so the the closer job will belong to Carlos Marmol from the outset. His issues have been well documented. When he can keep the ball in the strike zone, he's nigh unhittable, but at times that seems impossible for him to do. Even still, Marmol has established himself as at least a good bullpen arm, if not a consistently great one. After the closer's spot, things get a lot murkier. Right now, it seems like the set-up man is going to be John Grabow, who had end of '09 with the Cubs after coming over from the Pirates. Nothing about him really exudes set-up man on a contending team though. The set-up man was intended to be Angel Guzman, who is now going to be out for the year with another major arm injury, something which has plagued him throughout his career. On opening day, the Cubs will have three rookies in the bullpen: Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridid, and James Russell. Caridad and Berg were both up for short stints in 2009, and were pretty good for whatever that small sample size is worth. Caridad also pitched 12 games this spring without allowing an earned run. Russell hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors whatsoever. Maybe everything will come together and they'll have really good years, but it certainly seems like the Cubs may have to throw together some money within their tight budget constraints to get an extra veteran arm if they manage to stay in contention come July.

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The 2010 Cubs have a lot of question marks, and it seems like they're right on the precipice of their main bats simply being too old for them to really be considered a championship contender. Still, some of those same main pieces had awful years last year, even accounting for some decline due to age, and the law of averages would suggest that there might be something of a bounce back this year. The Cubs are also in a weak division, with the Astros and Pirates solidly in rebuilding mode (although I guess the Pirates didn't really have anything built up beforehand), the Reds and Brewers probably decent but not playoff worthy, and the Cardinals a clear favorite, but far from perfect. The season starts tomorrow at 3:00 against the Braves.